Metavalent Stigmergy

How New Default Consensus Realities Instantiate

Current Market Forecast

Okay, I’m going to start tossing out my Market Forecasts every so randomly often and we’ll see what kind of moronomaven I turn out to be.  As of today, August 7, 2006:

  1. Fed pauses Aug. 8.
  2. Market goes “WooHoo” for a week or two.
  3. The buzz wears off by the 15th or 20th and we BEAR sideways-down through October.
  4. Stumbling sideways sort-of bull into November.  Much yammering about “maybe no Santa Claus this year.”
  5. Just before Turkey Day, find out which turkeys fell for that one.
  6. Santa not packing the same goods as some better years, but he’s still Santa.
  7. 2007: The Year of Vista. More staggering, stumbling, bumbling, barely bull action on the way to Vista.  Much hand-wringing around tech.  How did tech rebound while I wasn’t looking?  “Why, oh why didn’t I BUY in JULY?”  I want my, I want my, I want my A.M.D …
  8. IF Vista impresses both IT Managers in terms of stability; and Business Managers in terms of business continuity, THEN, we could see business fill in for the consumer.
  9. IF Vista fails to accomplish #8, it’s going to be a bumpy Presidential Cycle, but prez cycle we will, to one degree or another.

There, I said it.  If you buy a single share of stock based solely on this FORECAST, you’re an idiot and you will lose every penny and your wife or husband, children, parents, and civilization will end as we know it.

Written on August 7, 2006